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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 2 at the 86

New England Patriots 0 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(9:32) 17-B.Baringer punts 26 yards to NE 40, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 84, worth +0.96 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 86, worth -4.92 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

PUNT -1.97 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 44, worth -1.97 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP