Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 12 at the 67

New England Patriots 0 – New Orleans Saints 24

What Actually Happened

(6:51) 17-B.Baringer punts 57 yards to NO 10, Center-49-J.Cardona. 22-R.Shaheed to NO 26 for 16 yards (21-A.Phillips). PENALTY on NO-1-A.Taylor, Offensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at NO 10.

The Three Options

GO -1.98 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.37 EP
71% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 67, worth -3.74 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model