Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 6 at the 79

New England Patriots 0 – New Orleans Saints 14

What Actually Happened

(13:30) 17-B.Baringer punts 43 yards to NO 36, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds. PENALTY on NE-18-M.Slater, Illegal Touch Kick, 5 yards, enforced at NO 36.

The Three Options

GO -1.92 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +1.35 EP
59% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 79, worth -4.18 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model