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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 8 at the 61

New England Patriots 0 – New Orleans Saints 21

What Actually Happened

(6:52) 17-B.Baringer punts 45 yards to NO 16, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.

The Three Options

GO -1.22 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.66 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 61, worth -3.23 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 20, worth -0.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model