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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 3 at the 30

New England Patriots 0 – New Orleans Saints 7

What Actually Happened

(3:45) 37-C.Ryland 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

The Three Options

GO +1.68 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.47 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30, worth -0.70 EP
KICK +1.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 77% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.63 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 40, worth -1.44 EP
PUNT +0.57 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth +0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model