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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 67

New England Patriots 0 – New Orleans Saints 31

What Actually Happened

(7:22) 38-R.Stevenson up the middle to NE 33 for no gain (56-D.Davis).

The Three Options

GO -0.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.53 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 67, worth -3.72 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.30 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 25, worth -1.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model