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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 5 at the 83

New England Patriots 0 – New Orleans Saints 34

What Actually Happened

(1:55) (Shotgun) 4-B.Zappe pass incomplete short right to 14-T.Montgomery.

The Three Options

GO -1.85 EP
What Happened
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +0.82 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 83, worth -3.98 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -1.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 41, worth -1.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.41 EP