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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 16 at the 35

New Orleans Saints 21 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(11:40) 19-B.Grupe 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.

The Three Options

GO -0.27 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.73 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 35, worth -1.81 EP
KICK +0.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 45, worth -2.44 EP
PUNT -0.19 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model