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CIN Away

Cincinnati Bengals

HC Zac Taylor
@
TEN Home

Tennessee Titans

HC Mike Vrabel
Sunday 2023-10-01 · 13:00 Nissan Stadium, Nashville US ☀️ Clear Spread -2.5 O/U 41.5

Win Probability

CIN
51.2%
TEN
48.8%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • TEN offense: -0.170 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • CIN offense: -0.046 EPA/play over its last 8 games (19th in the league)
  • Ryan Tannehill (TEN): -0.033 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • CIN defense: -0.065 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (10th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

CIN 23
–
TEN 21
Projected margin: CIN by 2 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 4

CIN

Charlie Jones WR Out Thumb
Irv Smith TE Out Hamstring
Akeem Davis-Gaither LB Questionable Knee

TEN

Treylon Burks WR Out Knee
Luke Gifford LB Out Hamstring
Elijah Molden CB Out Hamstring
Peter Skoronski T Out Abdomen
Denico Autry DE Questionable Groin
Teair Tart DT Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CIN 3
–
TEN 27

Prediction missed by 26 pts on margin, 14 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:15 FG CIN (9:15) 2-E.McPherson 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Robbins. CIN 3 – TEN 0
  • Q1 01:27 FG TEN (1:27) 6-N.Folk 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse. CIN 3 – TEN 3
  • Q2 06:36 TD TEN (6:36) 17-R.Tannehill pass short right to 15-N.Westbrook-Ikhine for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 3 – TEN 9
  • Q2 04:06 TD TEN (4:06) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry left guard for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 3 – TEN 16
  • Q2 00:14 TD TEN (:14) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 22-D.Henry. 22-D.Henry pass short middle to 81-J.Whyle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 3 – TEN 23
  • Q3 04:41 FG TEN (4:41) 6-N.Folk 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse. CIN 3 – TEN 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.96 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 98%

    (9:15) 2-E.McPherson 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Robbins.

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 2 at the 45
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 44%

    (5:55) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short middle to 32-T.Spears to CIN 42 for 3 yards (57-G.Pratt).

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 14 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 70%

    (1:27) 6-N.Folk 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 15 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (13:35) 10-B.Robbins punts 49 yards to TEN 10, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 12-M.Kinsey to TEN 31 for 21 yards (32-T.Williams). PENALTY on CIN-26-T.Anderson, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at TEN 31.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 8 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (11:44) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 48 yards to CIN 9, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 16-T.Irwin.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 4 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (9:35) 10-B.Robbins punts 62 yards to TEN 10, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 12-M.Kinsey pushed ob at TEN 22 for 12 yards (84-M.Wilcox).

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 11 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (5:47) 10-B.Robbins punts 53 yards to TEN 23, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 12-M.Kinsey to TEN 27 for 4 yards (26-T.Anderson; 80-A.Iosivas).

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 3 at the 53
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.64 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 26%

    (1:28) 10-B.Robbins punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Touchback.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 4 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 94%

    (4:41) 6-N.Folk 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 8 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 26%

    (14:55) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 45 yards to CIN 8, Center-46-M.Cox. 16-T.Irwin to CIN 10 for 2 yards (11-C.Moore). FUMBLES (11-C.Moore), recovered by CIN-35-J.Davis at CIN 13.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 4 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (13:20) 10-B.Robbins punts 40 yards to TEN 41, Center-48-C.Adomitis, out of bounds.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 13 at the 37 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.54 EP
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 65%

    (4:58) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow scrambles up the middle to TEN 36 for 1 yard (58-H.Landry).