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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 4 at the 72

Cincinnati Bengals 3 – Tennessee Titans 3

What Actually Happened

(9:35) 10-B.Robbins punts 62 yards to TEN 10, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 12-M.Kinsey pushed ob at TEN 22 for 12 yards (84-M.Wilcox).

The Three Options

GO -1.59 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.19 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 72, worth -4.39 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.83 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 30, worth -1.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model