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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 3 at the 53

Cincinnati Bengals 3 – Tennessee Titans 17

What Actually Happened

(1:28) 10-B.Robbins punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.42 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 53, worth -2.87 EP
KICK -1.53 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.66 EP
PUNT -0.73 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 15, worth -0.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.64 EP