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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 8 at the 57

Tennessee Titans 3 – Cincinnati Bengals 3

What Actually Happened

(11:44) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 48 yards to CIN 9, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 16-T.Irwin.

The Three Options

GO -0.76 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.99 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 57, worth -2.67 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 17, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model