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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 11 at the 76

Cincinnati Bengals 3 – Tennessee Titans 10

What Actually Happened

(5:47) 10-B.Robbins punts 53 yards to TEN 23, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 12-M.Kinsey to TEN 27 for 4 yards (26-T.Anderson; 80-A.Iosivas).

The Three Options

GO -2.44 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.29 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 76, worth -4.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 34, worth -1.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model