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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 4 at the 81

Cincinnati Bengals 3 – Tennessee Titans 27

What Actually Happened

(13:20) 10-B.Robbins punts 40 yards to TEN 41, Center-48-C.Adomitis, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.83 EP
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +0.94 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 81, worth -4.75 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -1.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 38, worth -1.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model