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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 15 at the 59

Cincinnati Bengals 3 – Tennessee Titans 3

What Actually Happened

(13:35) 10-B.Robbins punts 49 yards to TEN 10, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 12-M.Kinsey to TEN 31 for 21 yards (32-T.Williams). PENALTY on CIN-26-T.Anderson, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at TEN 31.

The Three Options

GO -1.70 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.57 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 59, worth -3.33 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -1.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 18, worth -1.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model