4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 4 at the 17

Tennessee Titans 24 – Cincinnati Bengals 3

What Actually Happened

(4:41) 6-N.Folk 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.

The Three Options

GO +1.61 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.16 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 17, worth -0.75 EP
KICK +1.74 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 27, worth -1.11 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model