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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 14 at the 35

Tennessee Titans 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 3

What Actually Happened

(1:27) 6-N.Folk 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.

The Three Options

GO +0.29 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.58 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 35, worth -1.04 EP
KICK +1.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.64 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 45, worth -1.75 EP
PUNT +0.62 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model