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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 3 at the 3

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(9:15) 2-E.McPherson 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Robbins.

The Three Options

GO +2.37 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.42 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 3, worth -0.23 EP
KICK +1.40 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.44 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21, worth -1.18 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.96 EP