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Los Angeles Rams

HC Sean McVay
@
CIN Home

Cincinnati Bengals

HC Zac Taylor
Monday 2023-09-25 · 20:15 Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.0 O/U 45.5

Win Probability

LA
40.2%
CIN
59.8%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LA offense: +0.039 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • CIN defense: -0.055 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • Matthew Stafford (LA): -0.006 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

LA 22
–
CIN 25
Projected margin: CIN by 3 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

LA

Puka Nacua WR Questionable Oblique

CIN

Irv Smith TE Doubtful Hamstring
Joe Burrow QB Questionable Calf

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LA 16
–
CIN 19

Prediction missed by 0 pts on margin, 12 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:26 FG LA (8:26) 8-B.Maher 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans. LA 3 – CIN 0
  • Q2 13:00 FG CIN (13:00) 2-E.McPherson 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Robbins. LA 3 – CIN 3
  • Q2 09:52 FG LA (9:52) 8-B.Maher 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans. LA 6 – CIN 3
  • Q2 00:03 FG CIN (:03) 2-E.McPherson 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Robbins. LA 6 – CIN 6
  • Q3 10:42 FG LA (10:42) 8-B.Maher 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans. LA 9 – CIN 6
  • Q3 05:39 TD CIN (5:39) (Shotgun) 28-J.Mixon left tackle for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 9 – CIN 12
  • Q3 03:14 FG CIN (3:14) 2-E.McPherson 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Robbins. LA 9 – CIN 16
  • Q4 07:18 FG CIN (7:18) 2-E.McPherson 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Robbins. LA 9 – CIN 19
  • Q4 01:06 TD LA (1:06) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 5-T.Atwell for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LA 15 – CIN 19

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 4 at the 38
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 60%

    (11:31) 2-E.McPherson 56 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Robbins.

  • Q1 LA 4th & 11 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 96%

    (8:26) 8-B.Maher 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (6:02) 10-B.Robbins punts 46 yards to LA 26, Center-48-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 23-K.Williams.

  • Q1 LA 4th & 1 at the 65
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.25 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (4:32) 42-E.Evans punts 51 yards to CIN 14, Center-47-A.Ward. 15-C.Jones to CIN 21 for 7 yards (6-T.Tomlinson, 97-M.Hoecht).

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 11 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 76%

    (13:00) 2-E.McPherson 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Robbins.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 3 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.10 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 98%

    (9:52) 8-B.Maher 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 10 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (7:11) 10-B.Robbins punts 33 yards to LA 31, impetus ends at LA 30, Center-48-C.Adomitis, out of bounds. PENALTY on CIN-26-T.Anderson, Illegal Touch Kick, 5 yards, enforced at LA 31.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 2 at the 56
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (4:55) 42-E.Evans punts 45 yards to CIN 11, Center-47-A.Ward, out of bounds.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 10 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (3:50) 10-B.Robbins punts 46 yards to LA 30, Center-48-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 23-K.Williams.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 18 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 32%

    (2:27) 10-B.Robbins punts 44 yards to LA 5, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 23-K.Williams to LA 8 for 3 yards (26-T.Anderson).

  • Q2 LA 4th & 12 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (1:24) 42-E.Evans punts 51 yards to CIN 30, Center-47-A.Ward. 15-C.Jones to CIN 40 for 10 yards (24-R.Freeman; 97-M.Hoecht).

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 19 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 70%

    (:03) 2-E.McPherson 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Robbins.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 13 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 87%

    (10:42) 8-B.Maher 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 8 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 78%

    (3:14) 2-E.McPherson 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Robbins.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 12 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (:47) 42-E.Evans punts 58 yards to CIN 19, Center-47-A.Ward. 15-C.Jones ran ob at CIN 28 for 9 yards (24-R.Freeman).

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 1 at the 40
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 55%

    (11:10) (Shotgun) 28-J.Mixon left tackle to LA 37 for 3 yards (99-A.Donald).

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 5 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 68%

    (7:18) 2-E.McPherson 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Robbins.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (6:09) 42-E.Evans punts 46 yards to CIN 24, Center-47-A.Ward, fair catch by 15-C.Jones.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 14 at the 80 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (3:40) 10-B.Robbins punts 41 yards to LA 39, Center-48-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 23-K.Williams.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 3 at the 39 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 58%

    (2:43) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford scrambles up the middle to CIN 32 for 7 yards (21-M.Hilton; 20-D.Turner).