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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 7 at the 72

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Los Angeles Rams 3

What Actually Happened

(6:02) 10-B.Robbins punts 46 yards to LA 26, Center-48-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 23-K.Williams.

The Three Options

GO -1.58 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.92 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 72, worth -4.07 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -0.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 30, worth -0.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model