4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 3 at the 39

Los Angeles Rams 9 – Cincinnati Bengals 19

What Actually Happened

(2:43) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford scrambles up the middle to CIN 32 for 7 yards (21-M.Hilton; 20-D.Turner).

The Three Options

GO +0.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +2.76 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 39, worth -1.10 EP
KICK +0.67 EP
  • 58% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.22 EP
  • 42% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 48, worth -1.45 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model