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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 13 at the 24

Los Angeles Rams 6 – Cincinnati Bengals 6

What Actually Happened

(10:42) 8-B.Maher 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

The Three Options

GO +0.64 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.03 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24, worth -0.95 EP
KICK +1.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 34, worth -1.73 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model