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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 2 at the 56

Los Angeles Rams 6 – Cincinnati Bengals 3

What Actually Happened

(4:55) 42-E.Evans punts 45 yards to CIN 11, Center-47-A.Ward, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.35 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 56, worth -3.08 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.54 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 17, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EP