4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 8 at the 30

Cincinnati Bengals 13 – Los Angeles Rams 9

What Actually Happened

(3:14) 2-E.McPherson 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Robbins.

The Three Options

GO +0.84 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.60 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30, worth -1.11 EP
KICK +1.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.23 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 40, worth -1.75 EP
PUNT +0.24 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth +0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model