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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 10 at the 76

Cincinnati Bengals 3 – Los Angeles Rams 6

What Actually Happened

(3:50) 10-B.Robbins punts 46 yards to LA 30, Center-48-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 23-K.Williams.

The Three Options

GO -1.99 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.65 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 76, worth -4.07 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 34, worth -1.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model