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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 11 at the 11

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(8:26) 8-B.Maher 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

The Three Options

GO +1.27 EP
  • 28% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.59 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP
KICK +1.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 22, worth -1.15 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model