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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 18 at the 49

Cincinnati Bengals 3 – Los Angeles Rams 6

What Actually Happened

(2:27) 10-B.Robbins punts 44 yards to LA 5, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 23-K.Williams to LA 8 for 3 yards (26-T.Anderson).

The Three Options

GO -0.77 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.79 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.28 EP
KICK -0.94 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.31 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 14, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model