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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 4 at the 38

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(11:31) 2-E.McPherson 56 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Robbins.

The Three Options

GO +0.95 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.97 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 38, worth -1.67 EP
KICK +0.47 EP
What Happened
  • 60% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.40 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 47, worth -2.44 EP
PUNT +0.19 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth +0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP