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New Orleans Saints

HC Dennis Allen
@
CAR Home

Carolina Panthers

HC Frank Reich
Monday 2023-09-18 · 19:15 Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte US ☀️ Clear Spread -3.0 O/U 39.5

Win Probability

NO
53.7%
CAR
46.3%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Bryce Young (CAR): -0.263 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • NO offense: -0.054 EPA/play over its last 8 games (19th in the league)
  • NO defense: -0.128 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • CAR offense: -0.036 EPA/play over its last 8 games (17th in the league)
  • Bryce Young (CAR) has only 1 prior start in the data — thin sample

Predicted Final Score

NO 20
–
CAR 18
Projected margin: NO by 2 Projected total: 38

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

NO

J.T. Gray S Questionable Shoulder
Kendre Miller RB Questionable Hamstring

CAR

D.J. Chark WR Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NO 20
–
CAR 17

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:10 FG CAR (7:10) 4-E.Pineiro 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker. NO 0 – CAR 3
  • Q1 00:39 FG NO (:39) 19-B.Grupe 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley. NO 3 – CAR 3
  • Q2 09:55 FG NO (9:55) 19-B.Grupe 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley. NO 6 – CAR 3
  • Q3 09:15 FG CAR (9:15) 4-E.Pineiro 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker. NO 6 – CAR 6
  • Q3 03:03 TD NO (3:03) 34-T.Jones right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 12 – CAR 6
  • Q4 05:34 FG CAR (5:34) 4-E.Pineiro 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker. NO 13 – CAR 9
  • Q4 03:18 TD NO (3:18) 34-T.Jones up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 19 – CAR 9
  • Q4 01:21 TD CAR (1:21) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 19-A.Thielen for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 20 – CAR 15

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NO 4th & 13 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (12:03) 39-L.Hedley punts 29 yards to CAR 35, Center-49-Z.Wood, out of bounds.

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 5 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 71%

    (7:10) 4-E.Pineiro 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

  • Q1 NO 4th & 6 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 97%

    (:39) 19-B.Grupe 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (14:26) 10-J.Hekker punts 43 yards to NO 28, Center-44-J.Jansen. 22-R.Shaheed pushed ob at NO 44 for 16 yards (21-J.Chinn).

  • Q2 NO 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 98%

    (9:55) 19-B.Grupe 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 13 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (8:29) 10-J.Hekker punts 47 yards to NO 31, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 2 at the 50
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.73 EP
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 30%

    (6:26) 39-L.Hedley punts 40 yards to CAR 10, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 11-I.Smith-Marsette.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (4:10) 10-J.Hekker punts 47 yards to NO 21, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 3 at the 51
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 28%

    (11:53) 10-J.Hekker punts 48 yards to NO 3, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-42-S.Franklin.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 7 at the 94
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (10:36) 39-L.Hedley punts 47 yards to CAR 47, Center-49-Z.Wood. 11-I.Smith-Marsette to NO 41 for 12 yards (28-L.Johnson).

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 5 at the 36
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 66%

    (9:15) 4-E.Pineiro 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (1:32) 10-J.Hekker punts 54 yards to NO 18, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 9 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 33%

    (12:54) 39-L.Hedley punts 49 yards to end zone, Center-49-Z.Wood, Touchback.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 8 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 93%

    (5:34) 4-E.Pineiro 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 2 at the 54 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58%

    (1:55) (Shotgun) 30-C.Hubbard up the middle to NO 40 for 14 yards (6-M.Maye, 23-M.Lattimore).