Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 6 at the 71

Carolina Panthers 3 – New Orleans Saints 3

(14:26) 10-J.Hekker punts 43 yards to NO 28, Center-44-J.Jansen. 22-R.Shaheed pushed ob at NO 44 for 16 yards (21-J.Chinn).

The Three Options

GO -1.85 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.51 EP
58% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 71, worth -4.25 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model