Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 7 at the 94

New Orleans Saints 6 – Carolina Panthers 3

(10:36) 39-L.Hedley punts 47 yards to CAR 47, Center-49-Z.Wood. 11-I.Smith-Marsette to NO 41 for 12 yards (28-L.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO -3.17 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 87, worth +0.09 EP
57% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 94, worth -5.63 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (111 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model