Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 9 at the 49

New Orleans Saints 13 – Carolina Panthers 6

What Actually Happened

(12:54) 39-L.Hedley punts 49 yards to end zone, Center-49-Z.Wood, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.86 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +2.89 EP
67% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.75 EP

KICK -1.16 EP

36% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
64% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model