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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 5 at the 36

Carolina Panthers 3 – New Orleans Saints 6

What Actually Happened

(9:15) 4-E.Pineiro 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +0.53 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.97 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 36, worth -1.79 EP
KICK +0.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 31% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 46, worth -2.54 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model