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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 5 at the 34

Carolina Panthers 0 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(7:10) 4-E.Pineiro 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +1.01 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.27 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 34, worth -1.16 EP
KICK +1.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.47 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 44, worth -1.92 EP
PUNT +0.37 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth +0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model