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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 3 at the 51

Carolina Panthers 3 – New Orleans Saints 6

What Actually Happened

(11:53) 10-J.Hekker punts 48 yards to NO 3, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-42-S.Franklin.

The Three Options

GO +0.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.98 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 51, worth -2.78 EP
KICK -1.24 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.78 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 14, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP