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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 3 at the 68

Carolina Panthers 3 – New Orleans Saints 6

What Actually Happened

(4:10) 10-J.Hekker punts 47 yards to NO 21, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.

The Three Options

GO -0.92 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.48 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 68, worth -3.63 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.21 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 26, worth -1.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model