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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 2 at the 54

Carolina Panthers 9 – New Orleans Saints 20

What Actually Happened

(1:55) (Shotgun) 30-C.Hubbard up the middle to NO 40 for 14 yards (6-M.Maye, 23-M.Lattimore).

The Three Options

GO +0.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +1.68 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 54, worth -1.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.52 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 16, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model