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Carolina Panthers

HC Frank Reich
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ATL Home

Atlanta Falcons

HC Arthur Smith
Sunday 2023-09-10 · 13:00 Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta US 🏟 Dome Spread 3.5 O/U 40.5

Win Probability

CAR
50.0%
ATL
50.0%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • ATL defense: +0.037 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • Bryce Young (CAR): -0.014 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

CAR 22
–
ATL 23
Projected margin: ATL by 1 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 1

CAR

D.J. Chark WR Out Hamstring
Adam Thielen WR Questionable Ankle

ATL

Jeff Okudah CB Out Foot
KhaDarel Hodge WR Questionable Ankle
Cordarrelle Patterson RB Questionable Thigh

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CAR 10
–
ATL 24

Prediction missed by 13 pts on margin, 11 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 15:00 TD ATL (15:00) (Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder pass short right to 7-B.Robinson for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 0 – ATL 6
  • Q2 05:13 TD CAR (5:13) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 81-H.Hurst for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 6 – ATL 7
  • Q3 10:50 FG CAR (10:50) 4-E.Pineiro 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker. CAR 10 – ATL 7
  • Q3 04:56 FG ATL (4:56) 6-Y.Koo 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. CAR 10 – ATL 10
  • Q4 14:18 TD ATL (14:18) 25-T.Allgeier left end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was inbounds ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. CAR 10 – ATL 16
  • Q4 04:52 TD ATL (4:52) 25-T.Allgeier left tackle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 10 – ATL 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 16 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (13:12) 13-B.Pinion punts 31 yards to 50, Center-49-L.McCullough, out of bounds. PENALTY on CAR-42-S.Franklin, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at 50.

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 1 at the 11
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 97%

    (6:14) (Shotgun) 30-C.Hubbard left tackle to ATL 12 for -1 yards (90-D.Onyemata, 48-B.Dupree).

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 15 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 31%

    (2:55) 13-B.Pinion punts 38 yards to CAR 14, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 11-I.Smith-Marsette.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP
    p(convert) 56%

    (14:09) 10-J.Hekker punts 53 yards to ATL 15, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 20-D.Alford.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 1 at the 76
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.14 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (12:35) 13-B.Pinion punts 51 yards to CAR 25, Center-49-L.McCullough, out of bounds.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 15 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (2:00) 13-B.Pinion punts 58 yards to CAR 12, Center-49-L.McCullough. 11-I.Smith-Marsette to CAR 17 for 5 yards (40-K.Smith; 50-T.Davis).

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 10 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (1:34) 10-J.Hekker punts 55 yards to ATL 28, Center-44-J.Jansen. 20-D.Alford to ATL 28 for no gain (42-S.Franklin).

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 2 at the 25
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.63 EP
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 88%

    (10:50) 4-E.Pineiro 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54%

    (9:45) 13-B.Pinion punts 60 yards to CAR 8, Center-49-L.McCullough. 11-I.Smith-Marsette pushed ob at CAR 21 for 13 yards (16-S.Miller).

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 5 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 79%

    (4:56) 6-Y.Koo 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 17 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (11:07) 10-J.Hekker punts 36 yards to ATL 35, Center-44-J.Jansen, out of bounds.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 5 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (8:30) 13-B.Pinion punts 55 yards to CAR 5, Center-49-L.McCullough. 11-I.Smith-Marsette to CAR 1 for -4 yards (46-P.Hesse). Penalty on ATL-46-P.Hesse, Horse Collar Tackle, offsetting. Penalty on CAR-13-T.Hill, Unnecessary Roughness, offsetting.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 8 at the 97
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (7:22) 10-J.Hekker punts 53 yards to ATL 44, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-5-L.Shenault.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 6 at the 74 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (2:53) 13-B.Pinion punts 44 yards to CAR 30, Center-49-L.McCullough, downed by ATL-50-T.Davis.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 15 at the 34 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.52 EP
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 74%

    (:22) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young scrambles right tackle to ATL 30 for 4 yards (27-R.Grant).