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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 15 at the 34

Carolina Panthers 10 – Atlanta Falcons 24

What Actually Happened

(:22) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young scrambles right tackle to ATL 30 for 4 yards (27-R.Grant).

The Three Options

GO +0.56 EP
What Happened
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +2.71 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 34, worth -0.19 EP
KICK +2.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.92 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 44, worth -0.31 EP
PUNT -0.00 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.52 EP