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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 16 at the 81

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(13:12) 13-B.Pinion punts 31 yards to 50, Center-49-L.McCullough, out of bounds. PENALTY on CAR-42-S.Franklin, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at 50.

The Three Options

GO -2.64 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.27 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 81, worth -4.65 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -1.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 38, worth -1.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model