Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 6 at the 74

Atlanta Falcons 24 – Carolina Panthers 10

(2:53) 13-B.Pinion punts 44 yards to CAR 30, Center-49-L.McCullough, downed by ATL-50-T.Davis.

The Three Options

GO -2.14 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +0.35 EP
56% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 74, worth -4.05 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model