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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 1 at the 11

Carolina Panthers 0 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(6:14) (Shotgun) 30-C.Hubbard left tackle to ATL 12 for -1 yards (90-D.Onyemata, 48-B.Dupree).

The Three Options

GO +3.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.23 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP
KICK +1.60 EP
  • 97% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 22, worth -1.08 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model