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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 10 at the 83

Carolina Panthers 7 – Atlanta Falcons 7

What Actually Happened

(1:34) 10-J.Hekker punts 55 yards to ATL 28, Center-44-J.Jansen. 20-D.Alford to ATL 28 for no gain (42-S.Franklin).

The Three Options

GO -2.66 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +0.95 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 83, worth -4.82 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -2.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 41, worth -2.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model