Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 8 at the 97

Carolina Panthers 10 – Atlanta Falcons 17

(7:22) 10-J.Hekker punts 53 yards to ATL 44, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-5-L.Shenault.

The Three Options

GO -3.25 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 89, worth +0.49 EP
57% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 97, worth -6.05 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (114 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model