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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 15 at the 70

Atlanta Falcons 7 – Carolina Panthers 7

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 13-B.Pinion punts 58 yards to CAR 12, Center-49-L.McCullough. 11-I.Smith-Marsette to CAR 17 for 5 yards (40-K.Smith; 50-T.Davis).

The Three Options

GO -1.94 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.27 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 70, worth -3.65 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.97 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 28, worth -0.97 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model