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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 17 at the 71

Carolina Panthers 10 – Atlanta Falcons 17

What Actually Happened

(11:07) 10-J.Hekker punts 36 yards to ATL 35, Center-44-J.Jansen, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.19 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.55 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 71, worth -4.05 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 29, worth -1.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model