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New York Jets

HC Robert Saleh
@
SEA Home

Seattle Seahawks

HC Pete Carroll
Sunday 2023-01-01 · 16:05 Lumen Field, Seattle US 🌧 Rain Spread -1.0 O/U 43.0

Win Probability

NYJ
39.9%
SEA
60.1%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NYJ offense: -0.107 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • SEA defense: +0.038 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • SEA offense: -0.032 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NYJ 21
–
SEA 24
Projected margin: SEA by 3 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 17

NYJ

Brandin Echols CB Out Quadricep
Jeff Smith WR Out Knee
Lamarcus Joyner S Questionable Hip
Vinny Curry DE Questionable Elbow
Nate Herbig G Questionable Ankle

SEA

Marquise Goodwin WR Doubtful Shoulder
Travis Homer RB Questionable Ankle
Abraham Lucas T Questionable Knee
Ryan Neal S Questionable Knee
Tyler Lockett WR Questionable Hand
Al Woods DT Questionable Achilles
Kenneth Walker RB Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYJ 6
–
SEA 23

Prediction missed by 14 pts on margin, 16 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 13:32 TD SEA (13:32) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short right to 84-C.Parkinson for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 0 – SEA 6
  • Q1 06:40 FG SEA (6:40) 5-J.Myers 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-4-M.Dickson. NYJ 0 – SEA 10
  • Q1 02:24 FG NYJ (2:24) 6-G.Zuerlein 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann. NYJ 3 – SEA 10
  • Q2 14:19 TD SEA (14:19) 7-G.Smith pass short right to 85-T.Mabry for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 3 – SEA 16
  • Q2 08:05 FG NYJ (8:05) 6-G.Zuerlein 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann. NYJ 6 – SEA 17
  • Q3 06:07 FG SEA (6:07) 5-J.Myers 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-4-M.Dickson. NYJ 6 – SEA 20
  • Q4 05:45 FG SEA (5:45) 5-J.Myers 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-4-M.Dickson. NYJ 6 – SEA 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 6 at the 6
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 98%

    (6:40) 5-J.Myers 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 8 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 86%

    (2:24) 6-G.Zuerlein 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 4 at the 38
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 63%

    (3:47) (Shotgun) 5-M.White pass incomplete short middle to 17-G.Wilson [10-U.Nwosu].

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 7 at the 39
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 61%

    (12:05) 6-G.Zuerlein 57 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 1 at the 32
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 76%

    (8:31) 7-G.Smith up the middle to NYJ 29 for 3 yards (72-M.Clemons).

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 7 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 96%

    (6:07) 5-J.Myers 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (5:51) 7-B.Mann punts 24 yards to NYJ 49, Center-42-T.Hennessy, out of bounds.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 6 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 45%

    (3:41) 4-M.Dickson punts 35 yards to NYJ 10, Center-46-C.Tinker. 10-B.Berrios to NYJ 13 for 3 yards (83-D.Young).

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 6 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (1:58) 7-B.Mann punts 59 yards to SEA 24, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 31-D.Dallas to SEA 32 for 8 yards (34-J.Hardee; 42-T.Hennessy).

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 6 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 89%

    (13:04) 5-J.Myers 41 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 2 at the 61
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.81 EP
    p(convert) 59%

    (11:32) 7-B.Mann punts 47 yards to SEA 14, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 31-D.Dallas to SEA 14 for no gain (21-A.Davis; 34-J.Hardee).

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (9:39) 4-M.Dickson punts 43 yards to NYJ 29, Center-46-C.Tinker, out of bounds.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 10 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 96%

    (5:45) 5-J.Myers 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 14 at the 64 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.84 EP
    p(convert) 28%

    (4:01) (Shotgun) 5-M.White pass incomplete short left to 25-T.Johnson [77-Q.Jefferson].

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 6 at the 21 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.25 EP
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 91%

    (2:00) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short right to 38-G.Igwebuike to NYJ 18 for 3 yards (56-Qu.Williams) [95-Q.Williams].