4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 6 at the 21

Seattle Seahawks 23 – New York Jets 6

What Actually Happened

(2:00) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short right to 38-G.Igwebuike to NYJ 18 for 3 yards (56-Qu.Williams) [95-Q.Williams].

The Three Options

GO +0.05 EP
What Happened
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +2.25 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 21, worth -1.21 EP
KICK +1.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.58 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 31, worth -1.57 EP
PUNT -0.79 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.79 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.25 EP