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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 1 at the 32

Seattle Seahawks 17 – New York Jets 6

What Actually Happened

(8:31) 7-G.Smith up the middle to NYJ 29 for 3 yards (72-M.Clemons).

The Three Options

GO +2.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.98 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 32, worth -1.31 EP
KICK +1.12 EP
  • 76% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 42, worth -2.11 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model