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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 10 at the 75

New York Jets 6 – Seattle Seahawks 20

What Actually Happened

(5:51) 7-B.Mann punts 24 yards to NYJ 49, Center-42-T.Hennessy, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.41 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.43 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 75, worth -4.43 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 32, worth -1.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model